Infections of young children and a three month rate in four days — phase shift changes in COVID-19

World COVID-19 Infections Increase by 1 Million in Only 96 Hours

July 19 (EIRNS)—The first COVID-19 case occurred in China in early January; it then took three months for the world to reach 1 million confirmed cases of infection. Between July 10 and July 14, it took just 4 days — a mere 96 hours — for the number of global COVID-19 cases to ascend by 1 million, to a total of 14 million.

Is this purely an increase in rate, with new cases now occurring at 25 times the rate a few months ago, or does the growth mean that new characteristics of the pandemic emerge? There are indications that specific phase-shift changes are occurring:

As hospitalizations increase, ICUs and entire hospitals are reaching physical capacity and staffing capacity. When health care is not available, patient outcomes become dramatically worse, undoing the improvements in the case fatality rate that have come from learning better how to treat sufferers of the disease.

Being on the outlook for singularities: on July 17 Insider Intelligence reports, “Nearly a third of children tested for COVID-19 in Florida have tested positive for the virus, according to data from the Florida Department of Health, raising new concerns about how children spread the disease.” The data, through July 9, show that roughly 17,000 (31%) of the 54,000 children under 18 years old in Florida tested for COVID-19 had a positive test result. The article reports, “Florida has tested more than 2.8 million people for COVID-19 in total, and state data shows that the average positivity rate among all ages is about 11%.” The under-18 cohort in Florida has three times the positivity rate of the population as a whole, and three times the national positivity rate for children. What model predicted this?

Further, Annette Rodriguez, director of public health for the Corpus Christi-Nueces County Public Health District, reported July 17, “I’ve been reviewing our statistics, and we have currently 85 babies under the age of one year in Nueces County that have tested positive for COVID-19. These babies have not even had their first birthdays yet.” She added, “Please help us stop the spread of this disease.”

The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, in a July 16 posting, reported that MIT research (not yet peer-reviewed) predicts that by the end of the year there may be hundreds of millions of cases concentrated in a few countries estimated to have insufficient responses given perceived risks, including India.

Linear models of the process are fruitless, as they do not understand what is happening. The eruption of singularities, including the shift of the infection time dimension, shows that the whole process of the pandemic, though still in the first wave, is undergoing a non-linear deadly phase shift. We need to figure out what is happening.

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